The Private Equity for Families Blog
Insight for those interested in private equity or direct investment in privately-held businesses. The opinions expressed in the PE4Fams blog are those of Rob McCreary and not necessarily those of CW Industrial Partners or its employees.
Inflation Playbook May Distort Reported Earnings
There are many lessons from the 1970’s and 80’s “Big Inflation” about interpreting reported financial results to determine if a public company is doing well or not. One of those lessons was wage inflation lagged, not led, price increases in goods and services. This stretched out the period of
Manufacturing Is Homeward Bound
After decades of globalization where manufacturers expanded supply chains to access low labor cost countries like China and Vietnam, manufacturing is coming home. Here is a chart from The Daily Shot showing China wage advantages versus the US have declined: According to a recent article in Bloomberg titled “CEOs
Credit Card Toxicology Report
My recent research on financial literacy has helped me understand credit cards may be the number one enemy of consumer welfare for the foreseeable future. Here are some of the top ten findings from an article by Samantha Rose on December 22, 2021 writing for OPPU at www.opploans.com about
TikTok Promotes Financial Responsibility
When I got my first job in 1976 going out for dinner was a new experience. As associates in a law firm you were asked to help recruit summer interns who might be candidates for a permanent job. The big problem was none of us had any credit and
Musk Eschews Deal Math
Elon Musk shocked many private equity firms when he proposed acquiring Twitter in a going private transaction for $44 billion plus fees. Twitter had struggled after the recent departure of its bearded co-founder and CEO/messiah, Jack Dorsey. Here is a chart of Twitters stock price since April 2017 courtesy
Tightening Its Own Noose
Quantitative easing was pure honey. Buying low yield, new issue Treasury bonds, buying government mortgage-backed securities, and providing overnight liquidity with yield through a repo facility were the important tools for 21st century central banks. They worked beautifully and provided liquidity and momentum for just about every asset class
A Greyhound In Your Future?
A return to normal travel protocols is creating some surprising twists. Based on my family’s experience with airline travel this spring here are four new rules for domestic airline travel: 1. An airline reservation is simply a highly profitable call option exercisable only by the airline in its absolute
Sneak a Tax
Wait until people start getting their 2022 real estate property assessments and their new real estate tax bills. After decades of small increases in property taxes, state and local taxpayers are completely unprepared for what inflation has done even without any rate increases. Property Taxes Are Not Indexed A
Weaponizing Financial Systems and Networks
A new armory of weapons for punishing international transgressions or restoring global economic order has recently been displayed. Whether it is economic sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on Russia for unprovoked attacks on Ukraine or the Canadian government breaking up a trucker blockade by freezing credit
A Fink May Be Voting Your Index Shares
Charlie Munger may be approaching 100 years old, but he is still sharp, and, more importantly, he is independent of the big money influences on Wall Street. Among that elite group is Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of Black Rock. Black Rock dominates the index fund business with $10
Cryptocurrencies May Shine If Inflation Persists
We are all getting a pretty good understanding of scarcity. When you combine it with demand you get $50 steaks and used cars worth more after 5 years and 40,000 miles than they were right off the lot. We are all hoping the demand for goods and services will
Are You Feeling Wealthy, Punk?
Detective Harry Callahan, Dirty Harry, was played by Clint Eastwood in a series of movies beginning in the 1970’s. As a detective for the SFPD Dirty Harry was highly unconventional in his approach to policing. For example, he did not carry the standard issue police revolver, preferring instead a
Money, Like Water, Will Seek Equilibrium
The wealth management industry has a prediction dilemma. Like environmentalists trying to predict where you could safely preserve five trillion gallons of newly created fresh water, crafting an asset allocation strategy for 2022 is complicated. $5 Trillion is slightly more than the gallon volume of water in Seneca Lake
Momentum May Highlight Worldwide Winners
Everyone likes momentum, especially mountain climbers. 2022 will present a” Seven Summits “challenge for US and world economies. That challenge was popularized by Richard Bass in 1985 who set out to summit the highest peaks on all seven continents. He was successful and his exploits demonstrate how connected and
The Fed’s Balance Sheet Mirage
Does anyone really understand what it means for The Fed to “monetize” Treasury Debt it purchases? Does it evaporate? Is it just a book keeping entry? Does it have to be paid back? And to whom? I was curious enough to consult The Google with the following search “What
The Federal Reserve Needs A Retired Person’s Perspective
What if the future for the U.S. economy is a hybrid of stagnant GDP growth, and dramatically higher wage inflation? I am not an economist and I am reluctant to propose this, but is it possible we will have low growth in real GDP but lingering inflation? I have
Inflation Changes The Investing Playbook
As investors begin to understand inflation, including the possibility it may become an impossible headwind for “real” returns, everyone wants to know what to do now. Responses to my last blog demonstrated a grudging acceptance inflation is going to last longer than a cup of coffee. So now everyone
Inflation Is The Only Choice Left
You have to be at least 70 years old to have any recollection of the economic environment of the late 70’s and early 80’s, when inflation grew from 3% to 15% and interest rates grew from 6% to 16%. I am also absolutely positive that very few of us
China Property Markets Are Teetering
If you think the real estate excesses in the US housing markets in 2008 leading to the Big Recession were epic, the possible carnage from defaults in the debt based China property market are historic. According to an article in “The Wall Street Journal” written by Quentin Webb and
Post Pandemic Panaceas—The American Rescue Plan Is the Latest
The good news is the “pork” panacea from ARPA provides about 100 times more than anyone needs. This should spur a line up of organizations trying to fund their WANTS from real and phony non-profits, to school systems and public venues and parks. Do you think the money may
Feds Versus States – A Dash For Your Cash
Contrasted with the state regimen, balanced budgets based on federal tax revenues are optional for running the country. Since the four-year period 1989-2001when Bill Clinton produced budget surpluses the federal budget has run a deficit. This is not a funding problem because the Federal government can pay for its
This blog represents the views of Rob McCreary and do not reflect those of CW Industrial Partners or its employees. This blog is not intended as investment advice. Any discussion of a specific security is for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as indicative of such security’s current or future value. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making an investment decision.