The Private Equity for Families Blog
Insight for those interested in private equity or direct investment in privately-held businesses. The opinions expressed in the PE4Fams blog are those of Rob McCreary and not necessarily those of CW Industrial Partners or its employees.
Warren Buffet’s Lessons About Asset Allocation?
It is with a massive dose of humility that I am attempting to divine why Warren Buffett has sold down his large ownership position in Apple stock and how he accomplished it without affecting the trading prices. Here is a 5 year chart of Apple’s performance. It has risen
The Fed’s Fiscal Dominance Dilemma
Over the last several decades a profound shift has occurred in the world of investments and responsibility for investment risk. Once upon a time when I started my career in the 1970’s, the risks associated with investment decisions were squarely shouldered by investors themselves. In this traditional model which
Reddy Kilowatt May Be A Few Electrons Short Of Net Zero
Reddy Kilowatt was the creation of the electric utility industry in the 1930’s when it was trying to spur consumer adoption of electricity which, for many, was simply an abstract invisible commodity. Here is Reddy Kilowatt circa 1930: By the end of WWII Reddy Kilowatt’s likeness was global and
Debt Jubilees May Herald A New Period of “Equally Broke”
I first learned about debt jubilees when I took a religion course in college. The concept is rooted in the bible, but it also has antecedents in the way religious leaders and kings curried favor with their subjects to remain in power and avoid rebellion. I asked ChatGPT to
Sailing Against the Tide
I have been monitoring many of the favorite investment names in the U.S. stock market like Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Progressive (NYSE: PGR), Facebook (NASDAQ: META) and Alphabet/Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). After a significant downturn in 2021 these stocks and many others have rebounded and, in many cases, have exceeded
Gold, Bitcoin and Uncertain Futures
Many of our blog readers have asked about Bitcoin (Ticker: BTC). This corresponds to the development of multiple ETF’s earlier this year, the halving of the reward paid to Bitcoin miners in April and Jamie Dimon rendering his annual opinion that Bitcoin is a “fraud”. Background On Bitcoin Here
Food Inflation May Be Much Worse Than Reported
I have always loved Triscuits and peanut butter. It was a staple of the McCreary family diet for more than 20 years. As time passes, I have noticed less salt, less fat, and less taste in modern day Triscuits but most of all I think the volume of Triscuits
Yearning For The Magic Prosperity Machine
In the 1980’s, against the backdrop of 18% interest rates, politicians and the financiers each staked out their turf. The financiers ceded the power to legislate, tax and create entitlement programs to the politicians and the politicians let the financiers run a legal monopoly known as the stock and
New Tools of Your Trade
A career in financial services has been a wonderful place to be for the last 40 years. Powerful macrotrends like 40 years of falling interest rates, Moore’s law with the doubling of computing power every several years, the emergence of a sophisticated credit economy, a plethora of worldwide investable
FOMO, Regret, and Missing the Party of the Year
As we start a new investment year and take inventory of bad habits to avoid and good ones to enhance, I come back to some value investing principles foremost of which is first do no harm or spoken in investment language, avoid losses. However, had you burrowed into your
Bank Credit Faces the Mother of All Maturities
Over the last 50 years I have observed many changes to how credit is created and financed. For the longest time banks were the only providers of credit and each bank set its own prime rate as the baseline for the interest rate the best borrowers could obtain. If
What You Know May Not Matter Anymore?
As a recent user of ChatGPT I was not aware my version 3.5 which is free is much less powerful than version 4.0 which costs $20/month. So, I bought the upgrade and put it to a test. I have been slightly disappointed with Chat’s ability to search data and
Lingers Longer And Stickier Than Bubblegum
Can you recall your first experience with bubblegum in your hair? It was stickier than you thought and your attempts to eradicate it only spread it more? More painful, however, was you looked like a dork for two weeks after your mother cut out patches of your hair. Inflation
Can Investors Reliably Assess Risk?
Howard Marks, the founder of Oaktree Capital, is a prolific communicator. He has written letters to his investors since he began managing capital in the mid- 1980’s. While he started with a very stable asset class – corporate bonds – over time he moved into a much riskier neighborhood
Changing Climate Is Hardly Changing People’s Risk Tolerance
This was the first summer I can remember when there was not a stretch of good weather for more than 5 days in a row. What I mean by good weather is also being redefined. Endless rain, big winds, small craft warnings almost every day, and serious flooding were
Dollar Dominance Has Many Foes
Depending on whom you ask you will get a different perspective about having the U.S. Dollar as the reserve currency for the world and the medium of exchange for oil and other essential commodities. If you live in Turkey, Venezuela, or Argentina, and have persistent, high double-digit inflation, holding
Tips Are Now A Compensation Strategy
One of the smartest investors I know taught me “you don’t bank percentages” so even if your bonus is ten percent, if it is applied to below market base pay you likely would be earning less than someone who got 5 % bonus on a higher base. In addition,
American Vacation Has Limited Choices
Chevy Chase immortalized the American vacation with the Griswold family’s cross-country journey to Wally World. That was the travel scene in the 1980s before Covid-19, inflation, forest fires, thermal inversions, flash floods, passport processing snafus, sold out National Parks, double digit lodging taxes, shortages of hospitality workers, road construction
Cash Flow Is Suddenly Out of Favor
When I was first introduced to the stock market by my aunt, a securities analyst for a leading regional securities firm, her formula for success was picking companies that were growing revenues fast and also paying dividends. In the 1960’s the so-called “Nifty Fifty” had many of those attributes
Modelo in the Metaverse
This Monday I was anxious to scour the news for one of the greatest emerging conflicts of my lifetime. I raced right past the war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, the Wagner Group’s march to Moscow and China’s burgeoning spy base in Cuba. The real news
Copper May Be The New “Rare Earth”
I attended my 50th college reunion earlier this month and had the good fortune of listening to a dozen subject matter presentations by reunion alums from class years ending in “3” or “8”. I was really interested in a presentation by several of my class members and a gentleman
This blog represents the views of Rob McCreary and do not reflect those of CW Industrial Partners or its employees. This blog is not intended as investment advice. Any discussion of a specific security is for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as indicative of such security’s current or future value. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making an investment decision.